Joined: 11 Aug 2007 Last Visit: 09 Jun 2009 Posts: 102
Posted: Wed Sep 26, 2007 2:40 am Post subject:
tfm wrote:
Looking at the other side of things, which D&D/RPG item do you think has held it's value consistently?
Good question: would be interested to know other people's thoughts on that, too. Woodgrains are getting rather condition-sensitive for pricing for my liking, too.
It might be the boring choice, but I'd probably have to go with Frank/Deadlord's "Holy Trinity" if talking about /high-value/ consistently year-in, year-out strong prices for items that do turn up on a semi-regular (if infrequent) basis. Would love to know how much abuse a Tsoj can take and /still/ be worth $500 - could probably hole punch, split most of the spine, cut the character sheets and annotate, too.
It ain't comparable with the same sort of meteoric increase that the likes of most of the Wee Warriors has had, but it's possible to stack those tourneys in one pile and Clevelands in another *knowing* that the former can be converted into the latter and should you wish to reverse the process the premium is unlikely to be huge, with a bit of patience (at present, Invernesses not withstanding).
oB3 has "honorary member" status, I guess...
Further down the chain, EPT was until recently almost a trade-currency. Given how common those are, they must have one helluva reputation to have kept pulling in good solid $75-100+ money.
I keep expecting the price to collapse but it never has /quite/ managed that yet and any cycles are far less crazy than with the equivalent $ OCEs, for example. (Looking at that another way, y'could say the OCE cyclical recovery is consistent too and that buying them when they hit as low as $50-60 is a cast-iron "win").
*
Silver Anniversary box sets are picking up an even better "commodity" reputation, perhaps, after early uncertainties although in that case high reseller prices help and being nearly-new makes it easy for people to know exactly what that consistent $75-125 buys them.
Would love to add in some examples from the likes of JG, say, but the numbers don't bear that out... for example the relative historic prices for CSWE, Tegel, CSIO & Inferno. Totally all-over the place...
Might have to think on this further since the timescale is all-important, too. Look back 5 or 10 years and a /totally/ different picture can emerge! (Hardly need to state that in present company, though )
Joined: 11 Aug 2007 Last Visit: 09 Jun 2009 Posts: 102
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:21 am Post subject:
tfm wrote:
Quote:
Frank/Deadlord's "Holy Trinity"
Is this GT, LT, and ST1 or LCOT?
*g*. Inverness, Tamo and Tsoj (rather than ST1).
For now, ST1 might be "holding value" but that's a very high trend to try to maintain on infrequent sales and (from a NPOV) I wouldn't be overly sure how strong that is. Neither Frank, myself, Mike/IO or a few others particularly "rate" that mod. - there are more stashed aside than people care to admit and a good chance of a disproportionate number appearing relative to the "known" cohort. (The Acaeum estimate on overall survivorship was finally upped on-the-sly after ongoing pressure, but the backstory still doesn't tally).
JM02c, anyhow. ;>
tfm wrote:
I would add Metamorphosis Alpha. I can't understand why, but it's doing okay right now.
Good call. I was a bit worried that the recent 3rd in slightly rough condition was going to flop, but a newbie threw in $50+ at the end even for that. Shouldn't have been a surprise...
(No, I can't /really/ understand why that's such a regular performer either!).
Perhaps add the 1st MM to the list, too? Not so many of those for sale nowadays in decent nick but had always been a good solid sale in the $50-100 band and has gradually drifted upwards through that in recent years in a relatively consistent manner. (From what I can recall off-hand, that is...).
Joined: 12 Nov 2005 Last Visit: 22 Mar 2020 Posts: 4574 Location: In the House of the Cosmic Frog
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:52 pm Post subject:
I've been looking for a Warriors of Mars for a few years now, waiting for a decently priced one, you know, the $250 range. Well, they haven't been going down. It's held its value extremely well since I've been watching. Quite the opposite from the 1st Woodgrain which has taken a huge value hit. $2600? and with a bonus item? That's a far cry from $4K+. What was Greenspan's term? "Irrational exuberance?" Several people got screwed thoroughly by the hype machine. A $2600-$2800 or may be $3K should be our valuation for that item when we start think about valuations again. _________________ "This is cool."
Joined: 25 Jul 2007 Last Visit: 29 Dec 2023 Posts: 230 Location: Wichita, KS
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:26 am Post subject:
WoM still seems to have dropped a little (it seems to be in the $350-500 range now, rather than the $450-600 range), though that could just be a blip rather than a trend (need more time/auctions under our belts, I suppose). _________________ grodog
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Allan Grohe
grodog@gmail.com http://www.greyhawkonline.com/grodog/greyhawk.html
Joined: 12 Sep 2007 Last Visit: 12 Feb 2009 Posts: 56 Location: Berkeley, CA
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:58 am Post subject:
Personally, I think market volumes are too low to support stable valuations for the rarities (widely desired items with a print run of a thousand or less, for want of a better definition).
There's a small group of people seriously interested in the rarities. It's almost certainly the case that a handful of "determined" collectors are the instigators of the more spectacular prices. Look at how often the final price of an auction is 2x or more what the third-highest bidder offers (even taking into account that some middling snipes may be invalid by the time they resolve).
When things like 1st woodgrains resurface on eBay again and again (and this year they have), that very small market will get saturated and prices will decline precipitously. But an equally rare item that appears on eBay less frequently will have a higher apparent valuation. Spectacular sales undoubtedly encourage sellers to part with their wares, but that pressure aside it is really just unpredictable how often rare items will reappear.
That much said, I'm not investing in collectibles as a security, and I'd be a bit concerned for anyone who was. I do suspect that the value of the true rarities will climb over the long term (decades), but all sorts of hidden factors, like the current American economic downturn, undoubtedly influence transient pricing and discourage day trading.
Joined: 12 Nov 2005 Last Visit: 22 Mar 2020 Posts: 4574 Location: In the House of the Cosmic Frog
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:03 am Post subject:
You're right on that. The third bidder usually has a decent sense of the value. All it takes are two got-to-haves and the ceiling goes up. Look at that Monster Manual that went to $790. _________________ "This is cool."
Joined: 12 Nov 2005 Last Visit: 22 Mar 2020 Posts: 4574 Location: In the House of the Cosmic Frog
Posted: Sat Feb 16, 2008 3:37 am Post subject:
Yeah, I know. The good news is that high prices smoke-out more things. I don't have to have a lot of things, but I put bids on stuff that I wouldn't mind having. If it's something I really want, then that's a different story. That 1st Chainmail, for example, would have went for more if we didn't have it here already. I'm trying to make sure that the aces come here where they can be enjoyed and studied by all rather than disappearing into some box somewhere benefiting no one and educating no one. That's what dragons do. _________________ "This is cool."
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